The heat is on

What a start of the week. The financials are looking for a place to hide. FNM lost 20% of its value due to some analyst’s opinion. That is disappointing and buying opportunity at the same time. I am very optimistic about this stock. I am sure it will climb back up to $ 2 before the end of the year. I am pretty sure that FNM is in a sleeping mode right now and will wake up with a bang just like AIG. OPC is rocking and still got a lot of room to grow. This is just great. Steve is here in Fort McMurray to join Jacobs.

Gino Doucette got married on Monday (October 19, 2009). It was great attending the wedding reception with the wife. It was fun and emotional. I wish him all the best of life.

I went to “The Managing for High Performance Course” on Thursday to Edmonton. It was quite interesting. It was a small group and turned out to be very interactive. I enjoyed the course but I did not like to wake up 4:30 am to catch 6:00 am flight.


- Oil futures on Tuesday briefly topped $80 a barrel for the first time in a year before pulling back on a strengthening dollar. Retail gasoline prices moved higher for the seventh straight day. The impact of the U.S. currency became abundantly clear midmorning when crude prices fell by 1 percent as soon as the dollar went into positive territory against the euro. Crude prices have risen swiftly this month, moving in the opposite direction of the dollar. When the dollar loses value, crude becomes very attractive as an investment. Crude is traded in dollars, so it essentially gets cheaper when the U.S. currency is weak. Benchmark crude for November delivery fell $1.26 to $78.35 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, a barrel ran as high as $80.05 as the euro came close to $1.50 against the dollar. The November contract expires at the end of trading Tuesday. Oil for December delivery also was down, falling 84 cents to $79.12. "Once we hit $80 now the question is what's next?" PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said. For one thing, prices at the pump could continue to rise. Gas prices began to catch up to rising crude last Tuesday.

- PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Boeing Co. lost $1.6 billion in the third quarter, hurt by growing costs from two troubled plane programs that forced the airplane maker to slash its profit forecast. The world's second-largest commercial plane maker after Europe's Airbus, Boeing has struggled to launch its new 787 passenger plane and a revamped version of its classic 747 jumbo jet. Production delays, parts shortages and last-minute fixes have cost the company billions in write-downs along with additional design and manufacturing expenses. While sales edged up 9 percent during the quarter, profits took a big hit because Boeing booked charges of more than $3.6 billion for its two plane programs. They "clearly overshadowed what continues to be otherwise solid performance across our commercial production programs and defense business," Boeing Chief Executive Jim McNerney said in a statement following the results announcement Wednesday. They also led the Chicago-based company to cut its 2009 profit forecast to $1.35 to $1.55 per share from $4.70 to $5 per share. Boeing's quarterly loss amounted to $2.23 per share, compared with earnings of $695 million, or 96 cents per share, a year earlier.

- WASHINGTON – The man who watches over the $700 billion in government money given to banks and other institutions to avert a financial collapse said Wednesday he thinks it's too early to say how much will be repaid to the taxpayers. Just as the Obama administration prepares to announce a new TARP-like program for small community banks, Inspector General Neil Barofsky said he believes that "it's unrealistic to think we're going to get all of that money back." The Treasury Department has spent more than $454 billion through TARP programs. Forty-seven recipients have paid back nearly $73 billion. That means more than $317 billion remains outstanding with the program set to expire Dec. 31. Later Wednesday, President Barack Obama is expected to announce the community bank assistance effort. The American Bankers' Association has asked for $5 billion in rescue-fund money to help small banks extend more loans.
Asked on a nationally broadcast interview how he would grade the program, Barofsky said, "I think right now it would have to be an incomplete." Barofsky did say the program was successful in "pulling us back" from a financial collapse, however. At the same time, he told CBS's "The Early Show" that the resumption of huge executive bonus payments by some of the same institutions that benefited from the government bailout has sown distrust and cynicism among many taxpayers. The mixed and blunt assessment came as the Obama administration takes steps to wind down and refocus the Wall Street rescue effort. Barofsky's conclusions were in a quarterly report scheduled for release later Wednesday.

- NEW YORK (AP) -- Schlumberger said Friday that it expects energy demand will increase, but slowly, as countries slowly recover from a recession that slashed its third-quarter profits by 48 percent. The Houston-based oil field services company was hit hard this year as crude prices sagged and drilling companies idled half of all rigs in the United States. But Schlumberger Chairman and CEO Andrew Gould said that government stimulus money has hastened the recovery of a number of industries. "The worst, provided the economy continues to show signs of recovery, is behind us," Gould said. Schlumberger Ltd. reported net income of $787 million, or 65 cents per share, for the third quarter. Schlumberger rival Halliburton Co. reported a 61 percent drop in third-quarter profits last week. The company said demand for oil and gas will be limited by high unemployment and a worldwide glut in oil and natural gas. Gas drilling in North America has increased slightly, but Schlumberger warned that recovery is "fragile," and that service activity and prices won't improve very much until late 2010. Schlumberger's revenue fell 25 percent compared with the year-ago quarter, to $5.43 billion. That missed analyst estimates of $5.48 billion. However, the company said its results held steady compared with the second quarter of 2009 as rising oil prices led to sustained drilling. Oil field service revenue ticked down to $4.95 billion from $4.96 billion. Most of the increase in gas drilling came from Canada. North American revenue was unchanged at $823 million, while revenue from Europe, Russia and Africa held steady and $1.78 billion. Latin American revenue and Middle East and Africa revenue both slipped 6 percent, to $1.07 billion and $1.23 billion respectively.


- WASHINGTON (AP) -- The level of poverty in America is even worse than first believed. A revised formula for calculating medical costs and geographic variations show that approximately 47.4 million Americans last year lived in poverty, 7 million more than the government's official figure. The disparity occurs because of differing formulas the Census Bureau and the National Academy of Science use for calculating the poverty rate. The NAS formula shows the poverty rate to be at 15.8 percent, or nearly 1 in 6 Americans, according to calculations released this week. That's higher than the 13.2 percent, or 39.8 million, figure made available recently under the original government formula. That measure, created in 1955, does not factor in rising medical care, transportation, child care or geographical variations in living costs. Nor does it consider non-cash government aid when calculating income. As a result, official figures released last month by Census may have overlooked millions of poor people, many of them 65 and older.
According to the revised NAS formula:
--About 18.7 percent of Americans 65 and older, or nearly 7.1 million, are in poverty compared to 9.7 percent, or 3.7 million, under the traditional measure. That's due to out-of-pocket expenses from rising Medicare premiums, deductibles and a coverage gap in the prescription drug benefit.
--About 14.3 percent of people 18 to 64, or 27 million, are in poverty, compared to 11.7 percent under the traditional measure. Many of the additional poor are low-income, working people with transportation and child-care costs.
--Child poverty is lower, at about 17.9 percent, or roughly 13.3 million, compared to 19 percent under the traditional measure. That's because single mothers and their children disproportionately receive non-cash aid such as food stamps.
--Poverty rates were higher for non-Hispanic whites (11 percent), Asians (17 percent) and Hispanics (29 percent) when compared to the traditional measure. For blacks, poverty remained flat at 24.7 percent, due to the cushioning effect of non-cash aid.
--The Northeast and West saw bigger jumps in poverty, due largely to cities with higher costs of living such as New York, Boston, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
The Census Bureau said it expedited release of the alternative numbers for this month because of the interest expressed by lawmakers and the Obama administration in seeing a fuller range of numbers. Legislation pending in Congress would mandate a switch to the revised formula, although the White House could choose to act on its own. Arloc Sherman, a senior researcher at the nonprofit Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said that because the revised formula factors in non-cash government aid, the amount of increase in poverty from 2007 to 2008 was generally smaller compared to the current measure.

- NEW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley returned to profitability for the first time in a year as income from its investment banking operations offset losses in commercial real estate. Morgan Stanley said Wednesday that stock and debt underwriting from investment banking, and rising profits from its retail brokerage business, which includes the Morgan Stanley Smith Barney joint venture with Citigroup Inc., more than balanced out $400 million in real estate losses. The New York-based bank earned $498 million in the July-September period, after losing $13.18 billion during the last three quarters combined. Investors reacted by sending Morgan Stanley stock up sharply in morning trading. It jumped $2.04, or 6.3 percent, to $34.56. The commercial real estate losses are a reminder that the broader economy continues to struggle even as financial companies profit from their investment banking and trading operations. Morgan Stanley has invested more heavily in commercial real estate than some competitors like Goldman Sachs Group Inc.


- If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They're expected to head a lot lower. Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices. Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some stabilization with prices rising 3.6%. In the past, Fiserv anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few years -- though it underestimated the scope. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com, agreed with Fiserv's current assessments. "I think more price declines are coming because the foreclosure crisis is not over," he said. In fact, those areas with high concentrations of foreclosure sales will experience the steepest drops, according to Fiserv. Miami, for example, is expected to be the biggest loser. Prices are forecast to plunge 29.9% by next June -- after having already fallen a whopping 48% during the past three years. If Fiserv's forecast holds, Miami real median home price will tumble to $142,000 by June 2011. In Orlando, Fla., the second-worst performing market, Fiserv anticipates a 27% price collapse by June 2010, followed by a less severe drop the following year. In Hanford, Calif., prices are estimated to drop 26.9% and continue falling 9.5% in 2011; in Naples, Fla., they're expected to fall 26.8% and then flatten out. Other notable losers include Las Vegas, where prices have already fallen 54.6% and are expected to lose another 23.9% by June 2010. In Phoenix values have already collapsed by 54% and could fall another 23.4%. In both cities, Fiserv anticipates the losses to continue into 2011, but they will be less than 5%.

- KUWAIT CITY – Kuwait's highest court granted women the right to obtain a passport without their husband's approval, the case's lawyer said Wednesday, in the latest stride for women's rights in this small oil-rich emirate. Unlike with highly conservative neighbors like Saudi Arabia, women in Kuwait can vote, serve in parliament and drive — and now can obtain their own passports. In many countries in the region, women cannot travel or obtain a passport without the consent of their male guardian. Attorney Adel Qurban, whose case the court was ruling on, said the landmark decision "freed" Kuwaiti women from the 1962 law requiring their husband's signature to obtain a passport. His client, Fatima al-Baghli, is one of thousands of women who have been petitioning courts for this right. The court found the article in the decades-old law "unconstitutional" because it goes against the principal of equal rights for men and women. "It undermines her free will and compromises her humanity," the court explained according to a copy of the decision provided by the lawyer. Activist Aisha al-Rsheid hailed Tuesday's ruling, but said females in this traditional male-dominated society were still a long way from the equality promised by the 1962 constitution.

- BAGHDAD – Iraqi security forces blocked streets around the capital Monday and conducted intense searches at checkpoints as authorities investigated the massive security failure that allowed two truck bombs to strike what was supposed to be one of the city's safest areas and kill 155 people. The country's worst attacks in more than two years on Sunday targeted the Justice Ministry and Baghdad Provincial Administration in the heart of the capital, calling into question Iraq's ability to protect itself as it prepares for January elections and the U.S. military withdrawal. Fear of more deadly attacks, especially in the run-up to crucial January elections, turned into anger over the government's failure to keep the country secure. "Today, we came to work despite the fear inside us," said Siham Abdul-Karim, 49, an employee of the Culture Ministry located near the site of the bombings and surrounded by police checkpoints on Monday. "We all wonder how could car bombs could reach these institutions.

Good things happen to those who wait

It had been a rocky week. The market is still correcting. CEMJQ, F and C were showing a lot of positive signs. I thought C will hit the $ 5.25 mark but it went up to $ 5 to get back down to $ 4.60. I should have unloaded on the $ 5 mark and reloaded. Anyway, another missed opportunity.
We got some snow last week. I think it’s earlier then last year but then again it was not too bad. I am hoping we will have a better and busier winter. I am looking forward to our trip to Vancouver. I hope Malahat will enjoy the trip.

- Oil prices were up to near $78 a barrel Friday, continuing a weeklong rally amid an unexpected drop in U.S. gasoline inventories. By mid-afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for November delivery was up 10 cents at $77.68 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, it rose as high as $78.17. On Thursday, the contract rose $2.40 to settle at $77.58. The Energy Information Administration said Thursday that U.S. gasoline supplies fell 5.2 million barrels while analysts had expected a jump of 1.6 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Crude supplies rose 400,000 barrels, the EIA said, while analysts had anticipated an 2.2 million barrel gain. Until this week, oil had bounced between $65 and $75 since May. "The transition to a $70 to $80 range is now in full cry," Barclays Capital said in a report. "We expect further transitions upward to occur in line with improvements in the underlying market data." A falling U.S. dollar has also helped boost oil this week.

- CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -- Bank of America Corp. said Friday it lost more than $2.2 billion in the third quarter as loan losses kept rising, providing further evidence that consumers are still struggling to pay their bills. The nation's second-largest bank said it wrote down loans on its books by almost $10 billion during the July-September period, up almost $1 billion from the second quarter. The bank also added $2.1 billion to its reserves to cover bad loans, bringing its provision for credit losses to $11.7 billion. The bank's total allowance for loan and lease losses now totals $35.83 billion. Bank of America's results were aided by profit from investment bank Merrill Lynch, including income from bond, stock and currency trading. Its earnings follow the pattern set earlier this week by Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which also reported more loan losses during the third quarter as consumers struggled to keep up with their credit card and mortgage payments. And on Friday, General Electric Co. reported that its GE Capital business, which includes credit cards, saw an 87 percent drop in profits, although it was also weighed down by commercial real estate losses. Together, the reports depict a financial industry that is still deeply troubled.Bank of America said it lost $2.24 billion, or 26 cents per share, after accounting for the preferred dividends of $1.24 billion. That compared with earnings of $704 million, or 15 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue in the quarter increased 33 percent to $26.04 billion.

- NEW YORK – Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s third-quarter earnings more than tripled from the depths of the financial crisis as income from the company's trading operations offset a drop in its investment banking business. Goldman's stock fell 2.5 percent Thursday as investors reacted to the slide in investment banking revenue, the result of a general slowdown in takeover activity. Shares fell $4.71 to $187.57 in afternoon trading. Some profit taking after the better-than-expected results also sent the stock falling, analysts said. Goldman earned $3.03 billion, or $5.25 per share, easily beating analysts' expectations for a profit of $4.24 per share. The bank earned $810 million, or $1.81 per share during its fiscal third quarter last year, which ended in August. During the peak of the credit crisis last fall, Goldman became a bank holding company and changed to calendar quarterly reporting periods. Goldman also had $5.35 billion in compensation expenses during this July-September period. The company said bond, commodities and currency trading buoyed its profits for the second straight quarter. "They're just good traders," said David Easthope, a senior analyst at consulting firm Celent. Trading and investment revenue nearly quadrupled from the third quarter last year and dipped 7 percent from record results in the second quarter. But investment banking revenue, considered the foundation of the company's business, fell to $899 million in the third quarter. The results were 31 percent worse than the similar quarter last year as the credit crisis was worsening and 38 percent worse than the most recent quarter.

- NEW YORK (AP) -- Billionaire investor Carl Icahn is offering struggling lender CIT Group a $6 billion lifeline. In a letter Monday to CIT's board of directors, Icahn is offering a loan to the New York-based lender to small and midsize businesses. He says the loan would save the company $150 million in fees. The move would allow bondholders to avoid voting for a revised debt exchange offer CIT Group proposed late Friday that Icahn says unfairly favors large bondholders. CIT is trying to reduce its near-term debt burden by $5.7 billion as it attempts to stave off collapse. CIT Group's losses have been mounting as its borrowing costs have outstripped its income amid the credit crunch. Shares of CIT are up 16 cents, or 14.3 percent, to $1.28 in morning trading.

- As a billionaire hedge fund manager, Raj Rajaratnam wooed Wall Street for years with his talent for picking high-flying technology stocks. But the spectacularly successful Sri Lanka-born philanthropist built his fortune through lies, according to federal agents who swooped on him for insider trading in New York yesterday. Rajaratnam, a 52-year-old financier ranked by Forbes as the 559th richest man in the world, was arrested alongside five alleged conspirators in a dramatic series of raids by the US department of justice, based on evidence compiled from phone calls intercepted by wire taps. In the largest insider trading case ever to be brought against a hedge fund manager, Rajaratnam was charged with 13 criminal counts of fraud and conspiracy. He is accused of making at least $20m of profit at his US fund, Galleon Group, through illegal tips from inside sources about companies including IBM, Intel, Google and the Hilton hotel chain. He was picked up as he prepared to board a flight from New York's Kennedy airport to London after becoming suspicious, according to prosecutors, that the FBI was on his tail. "He is not a master of the universe," said Robert Khuzami, director of enforcement at the Securities and Exchange Commission. "He is a master of the Rolodex." Rajaratnam established Galleon in 1996 after a successful career as an analyst at a US stockbroker, Needham & Co. His firm's funds have produced a remarkable annual return of 22% and have amassed some $6bn under management.
Among those arrested in the same operation were Rajiv Goel, 51, a director in strategic investments for the computer chip maker Intel, and Robert Moffat, 53, a senior vice president at the hardware manufacturer IBM. The technology executives are said to have given Rajaratnam a sneak preview of market-moving events. Goel is accused of passing on tips about an investment by Intel in an internet service provider, Clearwire, allowing Galleon to trade shares at a quick $579,000 profit. Moffat allegedly leaked information about a deal between Intel and a chip maker, AMD. Others charged were Anil Kumar, 51, a director of the management consultancy firm McKinsey, and two executives from a fund management firm, New Castle Funds, named as Danielle Chiesi, 43, and Mark Kurland, 60. Privileged information obtained by the gang included a tip-off from an analyst at the credit rating agency Moody's that the Hilton chain was to be taken private in July 2007. Rajaratnam bought thousands of Hilton shares and made a $4m profit when a private equity firm, Blackstone, bought the firm.
"Greed is not good," said Preet Bharara, the New York federal prosecutor bringing the case. "This case should be a wake-up call for Wall Street." The investigation is the first time US authorities have successfully used court-authorised wire taps to pinpoint insider trading, and it is the largest of its kind ever targeted at a hedge fund. One of those arrested, Chiesi, was allegedly recorded passing on information about AMD with a remark referring to the celebrity home stylist Martha Stewart, who was convicted of insider dealing in 2004.
"I'm dead if this leaks. I really am," said Chiesi, according to the US department of justice. "And my career is over. I'll be like Martha [expletive] Stewart."

- LAHORE, Pakistan – Islamist militants launched coordinated assaults on three police compounds in Pakistan's second largest city Thursday, the latest in a wave of attacks by insurgents bringing the war to the country's heartland ahead of an expected offensive against their Afghan border sanctuary. The dramatic escalation in violence appears to be an attempt by the Taliban- and al-Qaida-led insurgency to seize the initiative from the army and deliver a warning to the U.S.-backed civilian government: Attack us in South Waziristan and we will fight back in your cities. It also discredits Pakistani claims that the Taliban were on the ropes after this year's military campaign in the Swat Valley and the killing of their leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in a U.S. airstrike in August. The United States wants Pakistan's army to launch the operation in South Waziristan to root out militants who use the remote mountainous region as a base for attacks in Afghanistan, where the American war effort is faltering amid spiraling violence eight years after the invasion. Thursday's assaults in Lahore added to a sense of crisis in this nuclear-armed country, now shaken by five major attacks by the Islamic extremists in the last 10 days that have killed more than 150 people — including a 22-hour siege of army headquarters over the weekend. At least 19 people were killed in the Lahore attacks, most of them security officers, along with nine heavily armed attackers. Gunmen in all three attacks carried dried fruit and apparently were preparing to dig in for a long siege, said Rana Sanaullah, the provincial law minister.

- NEW YORK – A mortgage fraud crackdown announced Thursday (October 15, 2009) resulted in the arrests of dozens of people, including six lawyers, seven loan officers and three mortgage brokers in four states. Thirty-one people were arrested in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina. They were among 41 people charged with engaging in mortgage fraud scams that defrauded lenders out of more than $64 million in home mortgage loans. Of the 10 other defendants, one was expected to surrender later Thursday, four were previously charged and five remained at large. Authorities gathering for an afternoon news conference in Manhattan said the crackdown, dubbed "Operation Bad Deeds," was aimed at the failure of gatekeepers in the mortgage industry to act responsibly and legally. "Unfortunately, instead of protecting our financial system, in some cases they abused their positions and joined criminal schemes to steal millions of dollars," said Richard H. Neiman, the superintendent of banks for New York State. U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said in a statement that he found it "especially alarming" that lawyers, loan officers and mortgage brokers treated their professions as a "license to loot banks and profit from other people's pain." Those charged also included an accountant and a residential property appraiser. Authorities said the arrests resulted from a series of investigations conducted by state and local authorities along with federal prosecutors, the FBI, the New York State Banking Department, federal housing authorities, the U.S. Secret Service and U.S. Postal Service investigators. Most of the bank fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy charges brought against the defendants carry potential prison terms of 20 to 30 years each.

- WASHINGTON – Astronomers have found 32 new planets outside our solar system, adding evidence to the theory that the universe has many places where life could develop. Scientists using European Southern Observatory telescopes didn't find any planets quite the size of Earth or any that seemed habitable or even unusual. But their announcement increased the number of planets discovered outside the solar system to more than 400. Six of the newly found planets are several times bigger than Earth, increasing the population of so-called SuperEarths by more than 30 percent. Most planets discovered so far are far bigger, Jupiter-sized or even larger. Two of the newly discovered planets were as small as five times the size of Earth and one was up to five times larger than Jupiter. Astronomer Stephane Udry of the University of Geneva said the results support the theory that planet-formation is common, especially with certain type of common stars. "I'm pretty confident that there are Earth-like planets everywhere," Udry said in a Web-based news conference from a conference in Portugal. "Nature doesn't like a vacuum. If there is space to put a planet there, there will be a planet there."

- KABUL – U.N.-backed fraud investigators on Monday threw out nearly a third of President Hamid Karzai's ballots from Afghanistan's disputed August election, setting the stage for a runoff. The rulings dropped Karzai's votes to 48 percent of the total, below the 50 percent threshold needed for him to avoid a runoff with his top challenger, according to calculations by independent election monitors. It was unclear, however, whether the Afghan-led Independent Election Commission would accept the findings of the fraud panel and announce a runoff. Karzai's spokesman said it was too soon to make a judgment based on the figures released by the panel. That could mean a further delay in forming a new government that the U.S. believes is needed to help combat the growing Taliban insurgency. A protracted crisis could also lead to political unrest. "It's going to be incredibly important for the world to see that Afghan leaders are willing to make this process legitimate," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in Washington on Monday. The White House has also said no decision on sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan would be made before the election crisis is resolved — a stance reiterated Monday by the civilian chief of the NATO military alliance. U.S. Sen. John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who was among a host of international envoys in Kabul on the weekend urging the president to accept the fraud rulings, returned Monday to resume meetings with Karzai, the U.S. Embassy said. Two international officials familiar with the investigation by the U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission told The Associated Press that the findings showed Karzai falling below the 50 percent required to avoid a runoff with his chief rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. An independent calculation by an election monitoring group, Democracy International, showed Karzai with 48.3 percent, or about 2.1 million votes, after more than 995,000 of his votes were thrown out for fraud. Overall, about 1.3 million votes of the more than 5 million ballots cast were voided. Abdullah lost more than 201,000 votes, but his percentage rose to 31.5 percent from 27.8 percent previously.

October correction continues

This has been a pretty interesting week. The market was up and down and up again.
It was quite confusing for me to determine if I should get in or stay out.
It was a long weekend. We had a pretty good weekend. Thanks giving weekend is always fun. I think C is going to do well in the long run. OPC is just stuck at $ 2. I hope this stock makes a move. I think it may, the question is when.

I played in a poker tournament this weekend in FM. The format is very poor. I am glad I was third. I went out in spite of holding a dominant hand. I could have been 2nd. I went out holding K9 vs. K3. My opponent hit his 3 on the river. Oh well! Better luck next time.

- Oil prices rose to near $74 a barrel Tuesday as the weakening dollar made commodities -- which are priced in the U.S. currency -- cheaper for international investors and increased their appeal as protection against inflation. By mid-afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for November delivery was up 53 cents at $73.80 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.50 to settle at $73.27 on Monday amid expectations of stronger demand during the U.S. winter. Crude has shuffled between $65 and $75 for months as traders mull signs of an uneven economic recovery and consumer demand. "Today's oil demand fundamentals remain weak but the oil price is being held within a $65-$75 per barrel range with a weak dollar coming to the rescue whenever the price heads to the lower end of the range," said KBC Market Services in Britain. The dollar has slid over the last month on concern that massive stimulus spending designed to spark economic growth will eventually trigger inflation.

"We expect commodity prices to be heading north over the next 12 months as a hedge against inflation," said Melvyn Boey, deputy director of Asian equity research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "That includes oil and gold, down to soft commodities such as palm."

- NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Tuesday, threatening to break a six-day winning streak, as Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ - News) third-quarter sales figures disappointed investors. Johnson & Johnson, the world's largest healthcare company by market value, posted a higher-than-expected profit and raised its full-year earnings outlook, but its sales came in lower than Wall Street's consensus. The shares slipped 2.9 percent to $60.72. "The J&J news seems to be major factor causing some profit taking," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York. Ghriskey said that "whisper expectations", or private earnings forecasts talked about on Wall Street, may be too high. "Does everybody already expect companies to beat at least on the bottom line? And is the focus going to be just on the top line?" he asked.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) dropped 56.68 points, or 0.57 percent, to 9,829.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) dropped 8.24 points, or 0.77 percent, to 1,067.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) dropped 9.22 points, or 0.43 percent, to 2,129.92. Crude oil pared gains to trade below $74 per barrel mid-morning as the U.S. dollar recovered some of its earlier losses, removing the earlier boost to energy and natural resource stocks. Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX - News) fell 1 percent .

- NEW YORK (AP) -- An international energy think tank says oil demand in developed countries likely peaked in 2005, well before the recession sent crude prices plummeting. IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates said Tuesday that oil consumption started to slump four years ago as consumers bought more efficient vehicles and countries expanded their use of alternative fuels like ethanol. Vehicle ownership also has leveled off in the developed world, as has the number of women in the workplace, CERA said. The research report focuses on demand from 30 countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and make up 54 percent of the world's oil demand. Demand for oil in the U.S. has fallen by 2 million barrels a day since 2005, according to the Energy Information Administration.

- WASHINGTON (AFP) – The financial strength of Al-Qaeda is weakening in part due to global sanctions but the Taliban in Afghanistan is gaining from the heroin trade and other criminal activity, a US official said. David Cohen, assistant Treasury secretary for terrorist financing, said at a conference Monday that the Taliban "are in much stronger financial shape than Al-Qaeda." Cohen, whose comments were released in a transcript of Tuesday, said US officials believe that Al-Qaeda "is in its weakest financial condition in several years, and that as a result, its influence is waning." He said that Al-Qaeda's current financial state "represents one good measure of the success of these coordinated strategies" to cut off financial support for groups involved in terror attacks. The situation is different for the Taliban, which is spreading its footprint across Afghanistan, according to the official. "In Afghanistan today, the Taliban finances attacks against US and coalition forces through a wide range of criminal activity," he said. "It extorts funds from those involved in the heroin trade by demanding protection payments from poppy farmers, drug-lab operators and the smugglers who transport the chemicals into and the heroin out of the country.

- DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan – Pakistani jets bombed militant targets in the main insurgent stronghold along the Afghan border Tuesday ahead of an expected ground offensive there, while the army killed 26 insurgents elsewhere in the northwest, authorities said. The army's resolve to launch the offensive has been deepened by a recent series of bold and deadly attacks. On Tuesday, the Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide assault Monday that killed 41 people, including soldiers, in a northwest district next to the troubled Swat region. The army says 80 percent of the militant attacks plaguing nuclear-armed Pakistan are planned from South Waziristan, while the United States says insurgent leaders blamed for spiraling violence in Afghanistan are also based in the lawless, remote area. The army and the government have agreed to launch what is expected to be a bloody and difficult ground operation in the mountainous region. An army spokesman Monday declined to say when the operation would begin, but there has been speculation it could be imminent. For the past three months, jets have been bombing targets in the region, and the military has been trying to cut off militant supply and communication lines. Authorities are also trying to secure the support of militant factions that in the past have agreed not to attack Pakistani troops.

- OSLO – Members of the Norwegian committee that gave Barack Obama the Nobel Peace Prize are strongly defending their choice against a storm of criticism that the award was premature and a potential liability for the U.S. president. Asked to comment on the uproar following Friday's announcement, four members of the five-seat panel told The Associated Press that they had expected the decision to generate both surprise and criticism. Three of them rejected the notion that Obama hadn't accomplished anything to deserve the award, while the fourth declined to answer that question. A fifth member didn't answer calls seeking comment. "We simply disagree that he has done nothing," committee chairman Thorbjoern Jagland told the AP on Tuesday. "He got the prize for what he has done." Jagland singled out Obama's efforts to heal the divide between the West and the Muslim world and scale down a Bush-era proposal for an anti-missile shield in Europe. "All these things have contributed to — I wouldn't say a safer world — but a world with less tension," Jagland said by phone from Strasbourg, where he was attending meetings in his other role as secretary-general of the Council of Europe.

- NEW YORK (AP) -- Insurer American International Group Inc. said late Monday it has agreed to sell its nearly 98 percent stake in Taiwan unit Nan Shan to an investor group led by Hong Kong's Primus Financial for about $2.15 billion. Nan Shan, which serves more than 4 million life insurance policy holders in Taiwan, is the third-largest life insurer in the country by total premiums. Established in 1963, it operates a network of 24 branches and 450 agency offices. The Primus consortium, which also includes investment firm China Strategic Holdings Ltd., will maintain the Nan Shan brand. It also has agreed to retain existing compensation and benefits packages for Nan Shan's 4,000 employees and the agency's organizational and commission structure for at least two years after the deal closes. The current Nan Shan management team will remain in place. When the credit crisis hit last year, the U.S. government rescued New York-based AIG with a loan bailout package worth up to $182.5 billion in exchange for 80 percent ownership of the huge insurer. AIG is shedding assets in an effort to repay government aid. In July AIG completed the sale of 21st Century Insurance Group, part of its personal auto insurance division, to Farmers Group Inc. for $1.9 billion.

- TEHRAN, Iran – Iranian authorities have opened an investigation into former presidential candidate Mahdi Karroubi, a report said Tuesday, in a possible first step toward unleashing the hard-line judiciary on the opposition's top leaders. No formal charges have been filed, but the probe signals that Iran's Islamic leadership could use the courts against the most senior dissenters — whose claims include widespread vote fraud in June's disputed presidential elections and abuses by security forces against protesters in the violent aftermath. The powerful Revolutionary Guard and other pro-regime groups have urged for charges against the top opposition figures, including Karroubi, fellow reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami. More than 100 activists and political figures have already been tried on charges that include seeking to overthrow the Islamic system. The official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Tehran prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi as saying an investigative file has been opened on Karroubi and the case is under review by a special cleric court.

Friday was a tragic day

A close friend of mine died in a car crash on his way back from Edmonton. Joneson Chiang used to work for Syncrude and was a very hard working individual. We went to lunch a few weeks ago and he was so excited about his wife moving to Fort McMurray. I will miss him a lot and I wish that his family is coping well with the tragedy. It is really sad. The authority must do something to keep impaired drivers off the highway.

The market was in a mess last week. It’s correcting. I am not sure what to expect this week. I just hope that we see some recovery going forward. The projects are not moving here in Fort McMurray. I am not too optimistic about this year. It looks like a year to forget. We just want to forget 2009 and look to the future.

- NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices dropped to $69 a barrel Monday at the start of a week filled with third quarter company earnings reports that could hint at the health of the U.S. economy. Benchmark crude for November deliver fell 71 cents to $69.24 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 87 cents to settle at $69.95 on Friday. PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said swelling U.S. crude supplies are staggering, but the dire state of the jobs market is also hitting the energy markets. "Welcome to the jobless economic recovery that should reduce oil demand expectations even further as we look out into our future," Flynn said in his morning report. Weak economic data weighed on crude prices last week. The U.S. reported worse than expected manufacturing and jobs numbers, with the unemployment rate rising to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983. "Economic and oil data remain consistent with a macro economy just beginning to push off the trough, leaving markets with a lack of clear direction," Goldman Sachs said in a report. The oil markets also slipped on geopolitical news out of Nigeria, where a rebel leader accepted a government amnesty offer to disarm. Unrest in the country has cut its oil production by a million barrels a day, allowing Angola to overtake it as Africa's top oil producer.

- TOKYO (AP) -- Japanese automaker Mazda now expects about half the red ink it previously forecast for the fiscal year, crediting a rise in demand from "green" car incentives, and said it will raise $1.1 billion to fund research and development. Mazda Motor Corp. on Monday revised its forecast for the fiscal year through March 2010 to a 26 billion yen ($289.5 million) net loss -- about half the 50 billion yen ($556.8 million) loss that Japan's No. 4 automaker had projected in May. Mazda also said it will issue new common stock later this month that will reduce former U.S. alliance partner Ford Motor Co.'s stake to 11 percent from 13.8 percent. The automaker will issue 460 million shares from Oct. 14 to Oct. 20, raising as much as 95.9 billion yen ($1.1 billion) for research and development into green cars and safety features. In forecasting a smaller loss, Hiroshima-based Mazda said global sales for the fiscal year were expected to be stronger by 55,000 vehicles, rising to 1.155 million, from the earlier forecast of 1.1 million, helped by strong sales of the its high mileage Mazda3, called Axela in Japan.

- NEW YORK (AP) -- The U.S. service sector grew in September for the first time in 13 months, an encouraging sign for the fledgling economic recovery, although jobs remain scarce. The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in August. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction. The index, which tracks more than 80 percent of the country's economic activity, including hospitals, retailers, financial services companies and truckers, hadn't grown since August 2008.
The good news:
-- The new orders index, an indicator of future activity, jumped to 54.2 in September from 49.9 a month before, the first growth reading in a year.
-- Businesses' backlog of orders grew for the first time in 14 months.
-- Present business activity rose to 55.1 from 51.3 in August, growing for the second straight month after 10 straight contractions.
The ISM report is based on a survey of the institute's members in 18 industries and covers indicators such as new orders, employment and inventories. Five industries grew last month: utilities, health care, retail, construction and wholesale trade. And while activity is rising, only three areas reported an increase in jobs: health care, support services for companies and educational services. Overall, service-sector employment shrank in September, though at a slightly slower pace than in August. The survey's reading of 44.3, up from 43.5, was the 20th month of contraction in 21 months. "Better, but still terrible," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note. Other analysts said any hiring tends to lag increased production. "We won't likely see increased hiring until January," even if business and new orders keep rising this fall, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris. "Businesses are more reluctant than in the past to start the hiring process. They really do take the 'prove it to me' attitude" that the recession is over and demand is increasing, he said. Last week, for example, Little Rock, Arkansas-based telecom services provider Windstream Corp. said it would cut 350 jobs, or 5 percent of its work force, this year.

- ISLAMABAD – A suicide bomber disguised as a security officer struck the lobby of the U.N. food agency's Pakistan headquarters Monday, killing five people a day after the new leader of the Pakistani Taliban vowed fresh assaults, authorities and witnesses said. The blast raises questions as to how the bomber managed to evade tight security at the heavily fortified World Food Program compound in the capital, Islamabad. It could also hamper the work of WFP and other aid agencies assisting Pakistanis displaced by army offensives against al-Qaida and the Taliban in their strongholds close to the Afghan border. Hours after the attack, the world body said it was closing its offices in Pakistan temporarily. "This is a heinous crime committed against those who have been working tirelessly to assist the poor and vulnerable on the front lines of hunger and other human suffering in Pakistan," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters in Geneva. Ban said the U.N. will continue its humanitarian assistance to more than 2 million Pakistanis. WFP spokesman Amjad Jamal said the food agency would not halt its aid to refugees fleeing fighting between militants and the army even while its offices were shut. "I want to repeat it again that our operations have not been halted." There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing. Militants have carried out scores of suicide attacks in Pakistan over the last 2 1/2 years, several of them targeting foreigners and their interests. Under U.S. pressure, Pakistani security forces have recently had some success combatting the extremists. Islamist militants in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq seeking to attack high-profile Western targets have shown no hesitation in targeting foreign humanitarian agencies, including the United Nations, regardless of the work they are doing in relieving the suffering in the countries.

- WASHINGTON – And we're off: Swine flu vaccinations begin Monday with squirts in the noses scheduled for some doctors, nurses and other health workers in Indiana and Tennessee, a first step in a hugely ambitious campaign to try to inoculate over half the population in a few months. But don't start bugging your doctor about an appointment just yet. This week's initial shipments to states are so small that, with a few exceptions for children, most states are reserving them for health workers so they'll stay healthy enough to care for the flu-stricken and vaccinate others. Inoculations won't gear up in earnest until mid-October, when at least 40 million doses against what scientists call the 2009 H1N1 flu will have rolled out, with more arriving each week after that. This is uncharted territory — you really can't plan too far ahead to say, "I'll schedule my shot on Oct. 16 at Clinic X." Only as shipments start arriving will local doctors, clinics, school vaccination programs and drugstores get word that their doses are coming and how much. Each state health department decides that. People will have to stay tuned. "Take a deep breath, be patient, wait a couple of days, make another phone call and cut everyone a little slack, because it's a little hectic out there, folks," says Dr. William Schaffner, a flu vaccine specialist at Vanderbilt University.
Here's what you need to know:
Q: Why not wait to start until there's enough for everybody instead of the confusing here-and-there vaccinations?
A: Even though Sunday was the official start of flu season, this H1N1 wasn't heeding the calendar — it's already causing illness in nearly every state. That means getting vaccine to the people at highest risk is a race. So each week, states will distribute however much they have on hand.
Q: If factories are still racing vaccine out the door, how can I be sure it's safe?
A: The Food and Drug Administration clears batches of vaccine before they're released. The H1N1 vaccine is made in the same way as the regular winter flu vaccine that is used with very few, minor side effects by nearly 100 million Americans a year. There's no biological reason the H1N1 vaccine should react any differently, and no red flags have appeared in studies of several thousand people.
"What I want people to know is that no corners have been cut at all," said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Q: Why is the nasal-spray vaccine arriving before the shots, and can I use either one?
A: They're considered equally effective, but the maker of the squirt-in-the-nose FluMist was able to finish brewing sooner. There is an important difference, though. Flu shots, made of killed flu virus, are for anyone without an egg allergy. FluMist, besides the egg issue, is only for use in healthy people ages 2 to 49 — no pregnancy or underlying conditions. It's made of live but weakened flu virus. So some people on the first-in-line list for the new H1N1 vaccine aren't eligible for FluMist.
Q: Who's first in line once enough vaccine arrives?
A: Pregnant women; the young, ages 6 months through 24 years; people younger than 64 who have conditions such as asthma or diabetes that increase the risk of complications from flu; health workers and caregivers of newborns.
Q: I thought flu was most dangerous to people 65 and older.
A: Regular winter flu is most dangerous to older adults, but the new H1N1 is predominantly striking the young.
Q: How many shots, or squirts, will I need?
A: Most people will need one dose each of the H1N1 vaccine and the regular winter flu vaccine. But health authorities believe children under 10 will need two doses of the H1N1 vaccine, about three weeks apart. And some very young children getting their first regular flu vaccination will need two doses of it, too, for a total a four inoculations.
Q: Can I get both types of vaccine at the same visit?
A: If you're lucky enough to find a provider who has both at the same time, a jab in each arm is OK, or a jab of one and a squirt of the other. If you opt for the FluMist version of each vaccine, however, you're supposed to wait three to four weeks between squirts.
Q: What if I'm not on the high-risk list and want H1N1 vaccine anyway?
A: Only some will be physically reserved, doses sent to schools or obstetricians, for example. But eventually enough is expected for everyone who wants it within just a few weeks. The government doesn't expect people to be turned away unless that day's supplies run out.
Q: What will it cost?
A: The H1N1 vaccine itself is free because the government bought it with your tax dollars. But providers can charge a small fee for administering it, usually about $20. Regular flu shots tend to cost up to $35.

- STOCKHOLM – Americans Elizabeth H. Blackburn, Carol W. Greider and Jack W. Szostak won the 2009 Nobel Prize in medicine on Monday for discovering a key mechanism in the genetic operations of cells, an insight that has inspired new lines of research into cancer. It was the first time two women have been among the winners of the medicine prize. The trio solved the mystery of how chromosomes, the rod-like structures that carry DNA, protect themselves from degrading when cells divide.
The Nobel citation said the laureates found the solution in the ends of the chromosomes — features called telomeres that are often compared to the plastic tips at the end of shoe laces that keep those laces from unraveling. Blackburn and Greider discovered the enzyme that builds telomeres — telomerase — and the mechanism by which it adds DNA to the tips of chromosomes to replace genetic material that has eroded away. The prize-winners' work, done in the late 1970s and 1980s, set the stage for research suggesting that cancer cells use telomerase to sustain their uncontrolled growth. Scientists are studying whether drugs that block the enzyme can fight the disease. In addition, scientists believe that the DNA erosion the enzyme repairs might play a role in some illnesses. "The discoveries by Blackburn, Greider and Szostak have added a new dimension to our understanding of the cell, shed light on disease mechanisms, and stimulated the development of potential new therapies," the prize committee said in its citation. Ten women have won the prestigious medicine award since the first Nobel Prizes were handed out in 1901, but it was the first time that two women were honored in the same year.